Collaborators:
Bill Fagan, University of Maryland. John Sabo, Arizona State University.
This project focuses on stochastic estimation for population processes with the purpose of estimating
extinction probabilities and similar risk metrics. This project involves research on development of statistical methods, studies of model complexity versus prediction preformance, and cross-validation of methods using large databases of population time series.
Publications (available at E. Holmes' staff website)
Fagan, W. F and E. E. Holmes. 2005. Quantifying the extinction vortex. Ecology Letters. accepted.
Holmes, E.E., W.F. Fagan, J.J. Rango, A. Folarin, J.A., Sorensen, J.E. Lippe, and N.E. McIntyre. 2005. Cross validation of quasi-extinction risks from real time series: an examination of diffusion approximation methods. U.S. Dept. Commer., NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS-NWFSC-67, 37 p.
Holmes, E. E. 2004. Beyond theory to application and evaluation: diffusion approximations for population viability analysis. Ecological Applications 14: 1272-1293.
Holmes, E. E. and B. Semmens. 2004. Population viability analysis for metapopulations: a diffusion approximation approach. Pp. 565-598 in Ecology, Genetics, and Evolution of Metapopulations, editors Illka Hanski and Oscar E. Gaggiotti. Elsevier Press.
Sabo, J. L., E. E. Holmes, and P. Kareiva. 2004. The efficacy of simple viability models in ecological risk assessment: Does density dependence matter? Ecology 85: 328-341.
Holmes, E. E. and W. F. Fagan. 2002. Validating population viability analysis for corrupted data sets. Ecology 83: 2379-2386.
Holmes, E. E. 2001. Estimating risks in declining populations with poor data. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 98: 5072-5077.
Recent Meeting Presentations
1-day workshop on "An introduction to state-space models for estimation in population viability analysis". Ecological Society Annual Meeting, Montreal, Canada, August 2005. Available at the Math Bio
workshop page.
Institute of Theoretical and Mathematical Ecology, Univ. of Miami, Workshop on Spatial Ecology: The Interplay between Theory and Data, Invited speaker: "Diffusion approximation approaches for metapopulation viability analysis"
Organizer and speaker, Organized Oral Session, Ecological Society of America Meetings, August 2004, Portland, OR. "Emerging approaches for the analysis of stochastic ecological data: dealing with multiple error sources, hidden states, complex non-linearities, and uncertainty."
Organizer and speaker, "Technical Workshop on Population Trends and Extinction Metrics", December 5, 2003, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA
Western Fisheries Society Annual Meeting, Invited speaker for Symposium on Model validation and uncertainty, "A statistical approach to validation applied to diffusion approximation models"
