Northwest Fisheries Science Center

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Document Type: Journal Article
Center: NWFSC
Document ID: 4111
Title: Effect of forecast skill on management of the Oregon Coast coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) fishery
Author: David E. Rupp, Thomas C. Wainwright, Peter W. Lawson
Publication Year: 2012
Journal: Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
Volume: 69
Issue: 6
Pages: 1016-1032
Keywords: coho salmon, Oncorhynchus, management strategy evaluation, statistics, forecast skill,
Abstract:

Better fisheries management is often given as one justification for research on improving forecasts of fish survival.  However, the value gained from expected improvements in forecast skill in terms of achieving management goals is rarely quantified as part of research objectives.  Using Monte-Carlo simulations of population dynamics, we assessed the effect of forecast skill under two strategies for managing Oregon Coast Natural (OCN) coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch).  The first, or status–quo, strategy is currently being used to rebuild threatened OCN coho populations.  This strategy determines harvest based on both a forecasted marine survival rate and parental spawner abundance.  The second strategy relies on a forecast of pre-harvest adult abundance to achieve a constant spawner escapement target.  Performance of the status–quo strategy was largely insensitive to forecast skill, while the second strategy showed sensitivity that varied with escapement target and specific performance metric.  The results imply that effort towards improving forecasts is not justifiable solely on the basis of improved management under the status quo, though it may be were the management strategy altered.

URL1: The next link will exit from NWFSC web site http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/f2012-040
Theme: Recovery, Rebuilding and Sustainability of Marine and Anadromous Species
Foci: Investigate ecological and socio-economic effects of alternative management strategies or governance structures.