|Document Type:||Journal Article|
|Title:||Using accessible watershed size to predict management parameters for Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, populations with little or no spawner-recruit data: a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach|
|Author:||Martin Liermann, R. R. Sharma, C. K. Parken|
|Journal:||Fisheries Management and Ecology|
Escapement goals for Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha (Walbaum), populations tend to be highly uncertain due to variability in, and in some cases complete absence of, spawner–recruit data. A previous study of 25 populations from Oregon to Alaska demonstrated that watershed size is a good predictor of unfished equilibrium population size. Here this relationship is further developed by evaluating a series of Bayesian hierarchical models of increasing complexity. The model that performed best included a temporal random walk to account for patterns in the spawner–recruit residuals and life history–specific distributions for the productivity parameter.