Northwest Fisheries Science Center

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Document Type: Journal Article
Center: NWFSC
Document ID: 827
Title: Using accessible watershed size to predict management parameters for Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, populations with little or no spawner-recruit data: a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach
Author: Martin Liermann, R. R. Sharma, C. K. Parken
Publication Year: 2010
Journal: Fisheries Management and Ecology
Volume: 17
Issue: 1
Pages: 40-51

Escapement goals for Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha (Walbaum), populations tend to be highly uncertain due to variability in, and in some cases complete absence of, spawner–recruit data.  A previous study of 25 populations from Oregon to Alaska demonstrated that watershed size is a good predictor of unfished equilibrium population size.  Here this relationship is further developed by evaluating a series of Bayesian hierarchical models of increasing complexity.  The model that performed best included a temporal random walk to account for patterns in the spawner–recruit residuals and life history–specific distributions for the productivity parameter.  

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