Northwest Fisheries Science Center

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Document Type: Journal Article
Center: NWFSC
Document ID: 8537
Title: DEVELOPMENT OF A SEASONAL FORECAST SYSTEM FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CURRENT OCEAN CONDITIONS
Author: S. A. Siedlecki, I. C. Kaplan, A. Herman, T. Nguyen, N. A. Bond, G. D. Williams, J. A. Newton, W. T. Peterson, S. R. Alin, R. A. Feely
Publication Year: 2016
Journal: Nature: Scientific Reports
Volume: 6
Pages: 27203
DOI: doi:10.1038/srep27203
Keywords: seasonal forecast,Ocean acidification,hypoxia,SST,Washington,Oregon
Abstract:

Resource managers at the state, federal, and tribal levels must make decisions on a weekly to quarterly basis, and fishers operate on a similar timeframe. To determine the potential of a support tool for these efforts, a seasonal forecast system has been developed.  This system, JISAO’s Seasonal Coastal Ocean Prediction of the Ecosystem (J-SCOPE), features dynamical downscaling of regional ocean conditions in the coastal domain of Washington and Oregon using a combination of a regional high-resolution model and the large-scale predictions from NOAA’s Climate Forecast System (CFS).  Model performance and predictability were examined for SST, bottom temperature, bottom oxygen, and aragonite saturation state through comparisons of model hindcasts and re-forecasts for 2009 and 2013 with local observations.  Challenges of forecasting on seasonal and timescales were discovered, including the importance of the short wave radiation and the winds from the CFS model. Results suggest J-SCOPE forecasts have skill on timescales up to a few months depending on the variable and the time of year.  The experiments with J-SCOPE suggest that seasonal forecasting of ocean conditions for fisheries-centric metrics are possible with the right combination of ingredients. Those ingredients include regional predictability on the seasonal timescale from a large-scale model, a high resolution regional model with biogeochemistry that simulates regional conditions in hindcasts, a working relationship with local stakeholders, and a real-time observational network.  Multiple efforts and approaches in different regions is the only way to advance knowledge in this effort to provide such tools to fisheries.

Theme: Ecosystem approach to improve management of marine resources
Foci: Understand how climate influences ecosystem variability.
Provide scientific support for the implementation of ecosystem-based management