Northwest Fisheries Science Center

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Document Type: Journal Article
Center: NWFSC
Document ID: 9044
Title: Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change
Author: M. C. Urban, G. Bocedi, A. P. Hendry, J. B. Mihoub, G. Pe'er, A. Singer, J. R. Bridle, Lisa G. Crozier and 14 others
Publication Year: 2016
Journal: Science
Volume: 353
Issue: 6304
Pages: aad8466
Keywords: biodiversity,climate change,forecast,

New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances.  However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth.  Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes.  We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species responses to climate change.  We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions.  We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.

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Theme: Ecosystem approach to improve management of marine resources
Foci: Provide scientific support for the implementation of ecosystem-based management