A warming climate will alter both freshwater and marine communities, affecting resources for both fishers and endangered fish species.
For Pacific salmon, climate has diverse affects. Changes in stream temperature and flow alter fish survival, swimming performance, and metabolic rates, which in turn determine energetic costs and growth.
Climate also affects habitat abundance, diversity, and access.
Finally, the physical environment affects all species, most notably for salmon, both prey and predators. In response to higher temperatures, predators will likely consume more prey. Furthermore, warm–water invasive predators such as bass will grow more prevalent.
A review of the scientific literature of climate impacts on salmon reveals the many pathways these influences can take.
In the Ecosystems Analysis Program, our goal is to quantify climate influences on salmon in freshwater and marine environments over all life stages. Frequently this requires developing novel statistical tools. We then incorporate these relationships into models that can be used to assess extinction risk. Our comprehensive, multi–lateral approach has the following specific objectives:
Crozier, L. 2014. Impacts of Climate Change on Columbia River Salmon: A review of the scientific literature published in 2013. Pages D1-D50 in Endangered Species Act Section 7(a)(2) supplemental biological opinion: consultation on remand for operation of the Federal Columbia River Power System. U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service, Northwest Region.
Crozier, L. G., B. J. Burke, B. Sandford, G. Axel, and B. L. Sanderson 2014. Adult Snake River sockeye salmon passage and survival within and upstream of the Federal Columbia River Power System. Research report to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Walla Walla, Washington.
Crozier, L. G., M. D. Scheuerell, and R. W. Zabel. 2011. Using time series analysis to characterize evolutionary and plastic responses to environmental change: A case study of a shift toward earlier migration date in sockeye salmon. American Naturalist 178(6):755–773.
Crozier, L. G., R. W. Zabel, and A. F. Hamlett. 2008. Predicting differential effects of climate change at the population level with life-cycle models of spring Chinook salmon. Global Change Biology 14(2):236–249.
McClure, M. M., M. Alexander, D. Borggaard, D. Boughton, L. Crozier, R. Griffis, J. C. Jorgensen, S. T. Lindley, J. Nye, M. J. Rowland, E. E. Seney, A. Snover, C. Toole, and K. Van Houtan. 2013. Incorporating climate science in applications of the U.S. Endangered Species Act for aquatic species. Conservation Biology 27(6):1222–1233.